Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."